Dota 2 Net Worth Differential, Roshan & Late-Game Win Probability Estimator

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Compare regulated pre-match and live esports odds, map handicaps, and verified settlement rules while analyzing Dota 2 Net Worth Differential, Roshan & Late-Game Win Probability Estimator.

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MATHEMATICAL TOOL & TELEMETRY

Core Mathematical Parameters & Official Game Timings

Implied probability converts decimal odds into the exact break-even win percentage required before bookmaker margin (overround) is removed: P = 1 / Decimal Odds.
Expected Value (EV) measures long-term mathematical edge per unit staked: EV = (True Probability × (Decimal Odds – 1)) – (1 – True Probability). A positive result (+EV > 0%) indicates mathematical value.
In-play probability models anchor to official developer patch parameters: CS2 MR12 regulation (24 rounds, $800 start money, $1400–$3400 loss bonus, 115 sec round, 40 sec C4), Dota 2 (20 min Tormentor, 8–11 min Roshan, 5 min Aegis), LoL (6 min Voidgrubs, 14 min Turret Plates, 20 min Baron), and Valorant (100 sec round, 45 sec Spike, 7 sec defuse).

Reading net worth and Roshan in Dota 2

The net worth lead shown in the Dota 2 client adds up gold in items, inventory and unspent gold for each side. A lead means more than the number suggests when the leading side’s heroes reach their key items first; it means less when the trailing side has the stronger late-game draft.

Roshan respawns between eight and eleven minutes after he is killed, and the Aegis of the Immortal he drops lasts five minutes. The team holding Aegis can force a high-ground fight with a second life, which is why net worth swings sharply around Roshan timings.

Use the console below to convert a price into an implied probability and set it against what the game shows: net worth lead, item timings and whether Aegis is up.

Interactive Odds, Margin & Expected Value (EV) Reference Console

1. Implied Probability (%) = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100 | Margin (Overround) = [(1 / Odds A) + (1 / Odds B) – 1] × 100
2. Fair (No-Vig) Probability = Raw Implied Probability / Total Market Implied Probability Sum
3. Expected Value (EV %) = [(Estimated Win Probability × Decimal Odds) – 1] × 100
4. Quarter-Kelly Stake (%) = 0.25 × [((Decimal Odds – 1) × Estimated Win Probability – (1 – Estimated Win Probability)) / (Decimal Odds – 1)]